If There Were No War: Demographic Indicators Forecast for Vyshgorodsky District, Kyiv Oblast

Demographic processes have been disturbed on those Ukrainian territories which undergone occupation as a result of Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine. However, in order to rebuild such territories, local authorities need information the prospects demographic situation. Therefore, determining possible sources and choosing models forecast indicators for communities is relevant. The purpose this work identifying predict communities; forecasting population numbers, birth rate mortality via splines Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast communities. Novelty: spline functions. It has shown that retrospective research at level possible, if communities’ contemporary borders correspond past administrative territorial division. there are certain limitations regarding set. analysis 1979-2020 data Ivankivsky Polisky 1986-1988 cannot be used forecasting, since it varies considerably. This caused by evacuation residents from Chornobyl Exclusion Zone changes. usage functions 5-7 knots optimal. most adequate forecasts numbers can obtained cubic splines, whereas trustworthy – linear continuous splines. determined last years’ trends would continue during 2021-2024. Due hostilities territory no true situation, actual may turn out far forecasted because families with children emigration growth. Further improve methodology taking into account accidents cause unfavorable consequences necessary.